Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.019568 0.022198 0.025057 0.028398 0.032197 0.036384 0.041352
2025-05-11 0.015125 0.018658 0.022837 0.028152 0.034741 0.042655 0.052902
2025-05-18 0.012779 0.016686 0.021580 0.028172 0.036842 0.047886 0.063072
2025-05-25 0.010966 0.014996 0.020285 0.027753 0.038063 0.051844 0.071756
2025-06-01 0.009870 0.014049 0.019761 0.028164 0.040264 0.057138 0.082599
2025-06-08 0.008806 0.012989 0.018915 0.027959 0.041481 0.061062 0.091780
2025-06-15 0.008209 0.012512 0.018813 0.028757 0.044153 0.067241 0.104786
2025-06-22 0.007256 0.011392 0.017633 0.027788 0.044015 0.069133 0.111345
2025-06-29 0.006585 0.010630 0.016907 0.027419 0.044724 0.072322 0.120164
2025-07-06 0.005882 0.009744 0.015897 0.026479 0.044389 0.073764 0.126182
2025-07-13 0.005646 0.009592 0.016041 0.027429 0.047234 0.080619 0.141921
2025-07-20 0.005386 0.009373 0.016048 0.028133 0.049701 0.087022 0.157442
2025-07-27 0.005156 0.009191 0.016114 0.028967 0.052513 0.094347 0.175489
2025-08-03 0.004769 0.008698 0.015598 0.028719 0.053365 0.098273 0.187704
2025-08-10 0.004462 0.008321 0.015252 0.028739 0.054691 0.103148 0.202148
2025-08-17 0.004124 0.007854 0.014697 0.028312 0.055119 0.106354 0.213620
2025-08-24 0.003930 0.007640 0.014594 0.028731 0.057207 0.112904 0.232367
2025-08-31 0.003674 0.007285 0.014190 0.028521 0.058021 0.117004 0.246477
2025-09-07 0.003560 0.007198 0.014296 0.029336 0.060974 0.125641 0.270919
2025-09-14 0.003255 0.006703 0.013553 0.028347 0.060094 0.126313 0.278295
2025-09-21 0.003042 0.006377 0.013123 0.027971 0.060467 0.129624 0.291750
2025-09-28 0.002790 0.005948 0.012448 0.027011 0.059491 0.129950 0.298505
2025-10-05 0.002738 0.005941 0.012654 0.027981 0.062842 0.140003 0.328562